Handicapping the Republican Primaries

Newt For the Win?

For homework this weekend, choose at least one of the articles listed in this post. Complete the following on loose leaf:

1. Write a 1 paragraph summary. Include the article's main idea and any key points. (5 points)
2. Explain what you learned from reading the article. (5 points)
3. How does this article help you become more informed as a voter? (5 points)

The Articles
Here's an article from my favorite political blog, FiveThirtyEight, which predicts what might happen if a candidate such as Newt Gingrich wins some of the early primaries.

This article covers Mitt Romney's personal reinvention.

This article analyzes the apparent reluctance of Republican voters to choose Romney as their candidate.

Along the same lines, here's Gingrich as the "Anti-Romney."

And Gingrich breaking with his party on immigration issues.

Here's an editorial focusing on Cain and the lure of "outsider candidates."

This NY Times editorial suggests that the Republicans can learn a lot from Democratic strategy during the 1992 election.

This article focuses on the Democratic strategy regarding the Payroll Tax Holiday debate.

Finally, here's the Democrats' response to Romney's first national campaign ad.

As a bonus, hot off the presses, here's Romney's first ad for the Iowa primary.

Election Strategy

A two-term president?

Today we will focus on the overall strategies chosen by the Republican and Democratic parties in the 2012 presidential campaigns. You will complete today's assignment by yourself. You may:

• Type and print the assignment
• Write it on loose leaf paper

Part 1: The GOP (10 points)
First, read the article "G.O.P’s 2012 Strategy Puts Focus on Timing". It is a little old, but it will help us discuss some key Republican strategies. Use it to respond to the questions below.

1. According to the post, in what ways is the next presidential race comparable with the 1996 race? In what ways will this race be different?
2. What are the two main strategies that Republicans are using to level the playing field in the campaign against President Obama? Do you think that these two strategies will work? Why or why not?
3. Why are Republicans slowing down their potential candidates’ entry into the race? What are the benefits of this approach? What are the drawbacks?
4. Why are Republicans slowing down the anointment of a nominee? What are the benefits of this approach? What are the drawbacks?
5. If you were a campaign strategist for the Democratic Party, what would you do to counter these Republican strategies? Why?

Part 2: The Democrats (10 points)

When you're done with the first article, read"Obama begins re-election facing new political challenges". Use the article to answer the questions below:

1. What types of messages about his candidacy is President Obama sending his supporters at the kickoff of his re-election campaign? Why?
2. What are some good signs for President Obama at this early stage in the campaign?
3. If you were President Obama, what would you be concerned about?
4. What decisions did President Obama make during his presidency that might help or hurt him now that he is running for re-election?
5. If you were a campaign strategist for a Republican candidate, what would you do to counter Mr. Obama’s approach to his re-election campaign?

Part 3: YOUR Strategy (10 points)

Now, go back to your partner(s) for your Republican candidate. Your goal, clearly, is to discredit President Obama and to win election (for yourself and your party). Based on all of the research you have done so far, as well as today's articles, create a 10-step list that will enable you to take America's top job.

Back to the Ads

Today and tomorrow, we will return to your attack ad projects. We have access to Windows Live Movie Maker in the computer lab now, and will be able to do that.

You must:

• Save your ads research to the Y:\Ramin American Politics\Attack Ads Research folder
• Save your ad to the Y:\Ramin American Politic\Attack Ads folder

First: Check to make sure that your information is up to date! A couple of weeks have passed since we worked on this. Lots of things have changed in the time that passed.

Occupy Wall Street Quick Summary

Still don't quite understand the goals of the Occupy Wall Street movement? Check out this brief video from CNN. It's a little silly, but it gets the point across.

Presentation Preparation

Today's class runs from 8:50 - 9:26.

During this period, you must:

• Make sure each group member's name is on every document you are turning in
• Save your bibliography to the "Y:\Ramin American Politics\EPA Bibliographies" folder
• Save your brief the the Y:\Ramin American Politics\EPA Briefs" folder
• Print out a copy of your brief and your bibliography. Staple everything together and turn it in to me
• Print out copies of the brief for each member of the group.This way the presenters will each have one. In addition, the people not presenting will have one to follow along with.
• Outline your presentation

Your presentation before the Pollution Control Board is a 50 point project grade. It must include each of the following elements:

• When called on to present, you will stand and approach the podium.
• Introduce yourself and your organization. "My name is _______________, and I am here on behalf of the _____________________________."
• Introduce your colleagues, even those who will not be presenting. Gesture to each in turn. Students not presenting: when your name is called, stand, nod to the panel, and return to your seat.
• An introduction. Explain why you are here today. Give an overview of the 2 (or more) issues your group will focus on and any important facts you will talk about more in depth later in the presentation. State whether you will show that Chicago Clean Energy, Inc. should be able to build its proposed coal gasification plant or not (or whether you should get the land instead, Solar Service, Inc.!).
• First issue. Introduce the point, then give your supporting facts. Think: how can I persuade the panel to believe that my position here is more correct than the other groups'?
• Second issue. Again, introduce the point, then give your supporting facts.
• Summary and Conclusion. Summarize the points you made, and remind your audience of any particularly important facts. Conclude by strongly re-stating your opinion. Include your organization's name at some point.
• Be prepared to answer questions!

Break your presentation up between the two speakers. I recommend alternating between the two of you.

• First speaker approaches the podium, introduces group, introduces position, sits.
• Second speaker rises, introduces first issue, explains first issue, answers any questions, sits.
• First speaker rises, introduces second issue, explains second issue, answers any questions, sits.
• Second speaker rises, delivers conclusion, responds to any questions, thanks panel, sits.

All speakers will sit in the front row of the chapel. All other group members will sit in the audience area.

During the presentations, group members who are not speaking will have evaluation sheets to fill out. These will help you predict your success/lack of success/etc.

Any group members not preparing the outline in class today should prepare a list of at least six critical questions. When it is time to practice, watch your presenters to see if they address these questions. If not, ask them. Help them prepare strong, fact-based responses.

Pollution Control Board Briefs

An example of a coal gasification plant.

First -- no test on Monday. We will need to take one later in the week, likely Friday.

The Leucadia/Chicago Clean Energy, Inc. Issue

Leucadia National Corporation is a holding company that does business in many different fields. One of its focuses is on energy production. Now the company would like to open a coal gasification plant on Chicago's southeast side.

You represent one of 5 stakeholder groups:

• Leucadia National Corporation
• Illinois Coal Association
• Sierra Club
• Allergy and Asthma Network/Mothers of Asthmatics
• Solar Service, Inc.

In addition to Leucadia's real life bid, we are adding a little twist -- Solar Service, Inc. would like to purchase the same land to open a solar panel production factory.

Your group will need to produce a brief in support of or in opposition to Leucadia's bid.

The brief must be 3-4 pages in length PLUS a title page. An effective brief will likely be closer to 4 pages plus the title page.

This is a group project grade, and it is worth 80 points based on this rubric. You will also need to complete a 25 point works cited page, based on this rubric. Finally, your group will receive an additional 50 point grade  for your presentation at the Illinois Pollution Control Board (yes -- this is a real group) hearing on Wednesday.

This brief, prepared on behalf of the Sierra Club, is way too long for our purposes, but it gives an excellent example of the format you should follow.

If you cannot open the pdf, this link should work.

First, we will need to decide on a list of issues to address.

• Choose one member to represent your group for today only.
• The rest of the group members should go to this page produced by Chicago Clean Energy, Inc., a subsidiary of Leucadia.

Representatives will meet with members of other "friendly" groups to plan your side's attack. Other group members should watch at least 2 of the videos on the Chicago Clean Energy page in order to get a better idea of exactly what the issue is.

Research

First, the slides presented by Ms. Furey and the EPA speakers on Wednesday and Thursday are available for you to view in the "Y:\Ramin American Politics\EPA Slide Shows" folder.

Once you have the two issues your group will focus on in its brief, you will need to find at least five sources to use in your project. Include these in a minimum 5-source bibliography. 

These sources could be:

• Information from your organization's website
• News sources
• Academic papers
• Federal/State evaluations of the site
• EPA information on coal gasification and sequestration
• Etc., etc.

Make sure each fits with the points you plan to make!

Cite each source using proper MLA format, as demonstrated on the Purdue OWL website. Each group will turn in one bibliography.

For the sake of time, I will not require you to annotate your sources. However, take notes on them as you go through them -- this will make sure that you are including accurate information in your brief. I will not check your notes, but the quality of the notes you take will be evident in your final brief and in your presentation to the pollution control board.

The Brief

Follow the example Sierra Club brief to format your information correctly. You will need to:

• Mirror the format of the Sierra Club's title page
• Include a header on each page similar to the one on the example brief
• Do NOT include a table of contents (unless you really want to -- this will not count toward your page limit)
• Include an introduction your group, the reasons for your interest in the proposed Leucadia site, and the  issues you will adress
• Your group's evaluation of the proposed site and its impact on your position (environmental hazard? Job creator? Etc.?)
• Your analysis of related issues
• A defense of your position
• An refutation of the opposition's position

Remember -- hopefully you'll be presenting
for Governor Quinn!

The brief, remember, is just the beginning. You will need to make a reasonable, impassioned argument before the Pollution Control Board. Even now, you should be thinking of your two speakers and what they will say.

You need to convince the board to vote for your position -- whether or not to approve Leucadia's proposed coal gasification project on Chicago's SE side.

This is all due at the end of Monday's class. Make sure you divide anything that you will be accomplishing this weekend.

Politics and the Environment Prep Work

The logo for the Environmental Protection Agency.

For homework tonight, read the articles below and respond to the accompanying questions on loose leaf paper. The assignment is a 25 point homework grade.

First, read the Atlantic Magazine article "Dirty Coal, Clean Future" by James Fallows at the magazine's website. You can find the same article as a pdf here.

Use the article to answer the following questions on loose leaf paper (20 points).

Again -- the article is long. I recommend you read the questions first so you know exactly what information you are attempting to find.

1. Why is carbon dioxide arguably the most significant of the greenhouse gases?
2. Explain the “positive feedback” loop that may happen when carbon dioxide levels reach 450 ppm and above.
3. Compare the per capita CO₂ emissions of the United States, China, Europe, India and Kenya. What do they share in common? What is different? What’s unique about France?
4. Summarize the four components of the “carbon wedge” identified in the article.
5. The average American annually uses electricity produced by how much coal?
6. What “externalities” of coal usage are unregulated?  What is the consequence of this lack of regulation?
7. What is the energy efficiency of coal?
8. How long does it take to secure a permit to build a new coal-fired power plant in the U.S.?
9. Describe the process of CO₂  sequestration.
10. Describe the process of underground coal gasification.

Then, read Paul Krugmans's New York Times editorial "Here Comes the Sun." Summarize his main points on the same page as questions 1-10. (5 points)